Tag Archives: POTUS12

Election Eve Prediction

photo of Nate Silver

The Next Great Liberal Bete Noire?

No, not THAT prediction. There’s been quite enough of that already.

No, what struck me (enough to toss down a “you heard it here first” marker by writing this post) when seeing the tremendous kerfuffle over Nate Silver and his predictive model of the Presidential race, was what’ll happen after this election, if/when the mood of the country shifts.

My prediction? A lot of the same people who are currently cheering Silver as a truth-teller and GOP fiction-slayer will HATE him, the instant the country’s mood turns conservative. Why? Because they’re partisan fans (to be generous), and Silver’s a statistician and odds-analyst. What he does right now is heavily favoring Obama because that’s what the math tells Silver is correct.

But the next time Silver’s model shows a conservative/GOP tilt to an election, he won’t sugar-coat or spin it. He won’t try to second-guess or “unskew” it, because Silver is not a partisan and he’s especially not a fan of any particular politician – at least not enough of a fan to let it cloud his professional judgment. Nate’s a numbers guy. So the result will be that he’ll continue telling the country whatever his model tells him is likely…and a lot of the Obama fans currently cheering Silver will cry “betrayal” or at least “he’s lost his edge.”

You heard it here first.

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Oh, and as long as I’m doing predictions, my SWAG for tomorrow is: Obama 294, Romney 244. Let’s see how wrong I am. Heh.

11/7 Update: happy to have been among the unders. Final total not yet in because Florida still isn’t official, but assuming it stays in Obama column, 323 is a decisive victory. :o )

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How Much Does YOUR Vote Count?

No, this isn’t going to be one of those “don’t vote, it only encourages them” posts. Instead, I’m talking about the electoral college today.

This post was sparked by a segment on Rachel Maddow in which she pointed out that in addition to smaller states being able to exercise influence disproportional to their populations through representation in the Senate (every state gets two Senators, making states with under a million people like Alaska and North Dakota and Wyoming equal in power in the Senate to states with tens of millions like California and New York and Texas), the same holds true, albeit to a somewhat lesser degree, with the arcane system we know as the electoral college.

I won’t bother with the history of the electoral college, because it’s not really relevant: the electoral college exists today, whatever its origins were. If you’re not familiar, there’s a fantastic explainer on it at the equally fantastic Newsbound (check ‘em out!). The Newsbound explainer focuses on what sort of distorting effect having our Presidents chosen via this arcane and archaic system has on our political system. Even if you are familiar with the electoral college, you might learn something from their cogent and easy-to-understand presentation of the issue. Between that and Rachel Maddow’s brief segment on it, I got to thinking that it might be instructive to put together a spreadsheet of how exactly the electoral college skews our votes, depending upon the state in which we live.

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Foot-Bullet ‘Pragmatism’

Geof Kern's 'Bullet in the Foot' photo

Pragmatic Obama Fans’ Political Strategy
(image courtesy of Geof Kern photography)

How amusing. Here’s die-hard Obama fan Karoli Kuns* at Crooks and Liars, gamely rallying the troops through the obligatory fear-based warning about Teh Preznit Romney:

537 votes. That’s all that stood between Bush and Gore. It came down to 537 votes. That’s too close. Way too close.

The past is the past. But the only way to overcome all of the roadblocks is to step up and cast a vote in overwhelming numbers. Even if you think they’re jacking with voting machines…it can only be overcome by voting in huge numbers. They can’t jack everything no matter how hard they try, but it means getting out and voting.

As a standalone appeal, there’s nothing at all wrong with that message (except perhaps its failure to make a positive case FOR the President, but that’s not really the point of such appeals as this one). In fact, it’s quite correct as far as it goes: the election of 2000 should have reminded all of us that every vote DOES matter. I’ve written about that fact many times, for example. When 537 votes is the margin of victory in a national Presidential election, there’s no doubt that every vote, every action by the campaigns, matters – and might mean the difference between victory and defeat.

But when such a message comes from die-hard Obama fans like Karoli who have spent most of the last three years essentially telling progressives and anyone who agrees with them  to fuck off:

Here’s a big sad pug face for Eric Alterman to go with his whining, entitled column over at The Nation today. Yes, you heard me right: He’s a big whiner who needs to put on his big boy pants and get with it.

…then it’s rather rich, indeed.

Should this election turn out to be as painfully close as the 2000 election, I wonder whether people like Karoli will spend even a moment’s reflection (given that her top stated goal has been to re-elect the President) speculating whether perhaps comments like hers over the last three years (or comments like these from more-official sources) could have alienated a combined total of at least 538 voters who otherwise would’ve pulled the lever for Obama?

Nah. Probably easier to just blame Jane Hamsher or Ralph Nader Jill Stein for not falling in line.


* Karoli’s words, not mine:

Twitter screenshot image

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An Open Question on Social Security

Right now, everyone’s in campaign mode. All the guns, all the cylinders are being fired at once. This is the quadrennial “big f*ckin’ deal” as Joe Biden would say. So perhaps it’s not the right time to pose this question…but then again, given that election times tend to represent unique opportunities to put pressure on candidates, perhaps it’s the perfect time.

On the subject of Social Security:

Bad:

First, for future generations of seniors, Mitt believes that the retirement age should be slowly increased to account for increases in longevity.
~ Mitt Romney, campaign website


Worse:

All other workers will have a choice to stay in the current system or begin contributing to personal accounts. Those who choose the personal account option will have the opportunity to begin investing a significant portion of their payroll taxes into a series of funds managed by the U.S. government.
~ Paul Ryan, Roadmap for America’s Future


MUCH Better! (not to mention VERY definitive):

I guarantee you, flat guarantee you, there will be no changes in Social Security. I flat guarantee you.
~ Joe Biden, 8/14/12


…and finally, on October 3rd — a full six weeks’ after Biden’s very clear and reassuring statement — come on, Mr. President, bring it on home!

I suspect that on Social Security, we’ve got a somewhat similar position. Social Security is structurally sound. It’s going to have to be tweaked the way it was by Ronald Reagan and Speaker — Democratic Speaker Tip O’Neill.
~ Barack Obama (to Mitt Romney), first Presidential debate, 10/3/12

In a word, AAAAAAARRRRGH.

And yes, Obama fans, the President did hedge his remarks by mouthing the boilerplate used by all politicians who do not wish their career cut short from being electrocuted by the “third rail of American politics” (Obama said SS was basically “structurally sound”). But the operative words in Obama’s quote up there are in bold: he told 60 million Americans simultaneously that a) his position on Social Security was similar to Mitt Romney’s (who says his and Ryan’s are similar), and b) Social Security “will need to be tweaked.”

I’m sorry, Obama fans: “flat guarantee you: there will be no changes” just isn’t compatible with “will need to be tweaked.” Anyone else still wondering how (and how quickly) the administration will attempt to square this circle, assuming the Obama/Biden ticket wins another term?

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Here Are The ‘Six Studies’ Romney Says Refute Tax Policy Center Study Of His Tax Plan

*** 10/16 – SEE UPDATE BELOW; ROMNEY FINALLY RELEASES DETAILS OF TAX PLAN***

Mitt Romney laughing

Did I say STUDIES? I meant blog posts.

Back at the beginning of August, the non-partisan Tax Policy Center issued a much-discussed study that was the first to try to run the numbers on Mitt Romney’s tax plan. Specifically, they wanted to see whether Romney’s claim to be able to leave the Bush tax cuts in place and then cut taxes by an additional 20% across the board would work, in light of Romney’s promise that he would make up for the revenue lost by such a tax cut without having to raise taxes on the middle class. Unsurprisingly, the TPC was therefore also the first to come to the conclusion – also much discussed since their study in late August – that the math on Romney’s promises simply didn’t add up.

Part of this guesswork and extrapolation has come from the fact that the Romney campaign steadfastly refuses to get specific about exactly HOW they will make up the lost revenue without either adding to the deficit or soaking the middle class (or poor). In the absence of genuine specifics from the Romney campaign, the TPC had to make some assumptions, based upon likely economic conditions, as well as on the things Romney HAS definitely said. So they did. And then they re-jiggered those assumptions to be as favorable and generous to Romney as they could be without departing from reality.

Even then, they still found that Romney’s promises, taken together, are simply not mathematically possible.

In an election season, them’s fighting words. Having a difference of opinion about various policies is the stuff electoral politics is made of. But saying a candidate’s plans are mathematically impossible is of another order: pundits and the press take notice, and the public pays more attention, too, since such a statement carries with it the implicit accusation that the candidate is intentionally lying.

In the intervening time, a great deal of ink on the right side of the political aisle has been spilled attempting to debunk the TPC study. One of the parties most interested in debunking the study is, unsurprisingly, the Romney campaign itself. Within days, the campaign began claiming to have “six other studies” that said Romney’s policies WOULD work without raising the deficit or raising taxes on the middle class or the poor. Throughout most of September and right up through the first Presidential debate and the VP debate, the Romney team stayed remarkably on-message about this: they have one study, we have SIX that say the opposite.

What WERE these studies? The Romney campaign didn’t say, initially. Journalists were able to conclude what the campaign likely was referring to, based on what the campaign did refer to when discussing tax policy, but Romney and his team were never explicit about where these “six studies” came from, or who did them.

Until now.

Josh Barro, who did some of the original press-work about the original TPC study and the subsequent back-and-forth with the Romney campaign, finally got them to go on-record about where he could find these “six studies” which all show the TPC study of August to be false, and Mitt Romney’s tax plan to be viable without ballooning the deficit or hurting the non-rich with additional taxes. Are you ready? The studies, according to Romney via Barro, are “…perhaps more accurately described as ‘analyses’, since four of them are blog posts or op-eds. I’m not hating — I blog for a living — but I don’t generally describe my posts as ‘studies’.” More interestingly, “[n]one of the analyses do what Romney’s campaign says: show that his tax plan is sound.”

You don’t say.

The sources (“studies”, if you believe the Romney campaign) are these: a blog post by Alex Brill at AEI (a conservative think-tank), a second blog post from AEI (this one by Matt Jensen), two pieces by Martin Feldstein (one an op-ed at the Wall Street Journal and the other a blog post), and two papers, one by Curtis Dubay of the Heritage Foundation, and the other by Princeton professor Harvey Rosen. Barro goes through these sources one-by-one, explaining why each does not show what Romney claims it does, in detail. It’s illuminating reading, I would guess especially if you’re someone who’s not already familiar with Mitt Romney’s casual relationship with the facts/truth. If you’re not familiar, the mere fact that, of Romney’s “six studies,” only two are even anything approaching an actual study, ought to give you a pretty good indication.

I won’t post Barro’s analysis here, because that’s what his piece is for. If you read it, though, you won’t be in any further doubt about whether the Tax Policy Center’s study was correct in its conclusions. It was.


***UPDATE*** – Hold, I say HOLD, those presses! Mitt Romney’s campaign, under relentless pressure has finally made the calculated decision to release the full details of how his tax plan will be achieved without either ballooning the debt or taxing the middle class and poor. Read the details at Romney Tax Plan.

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I Get Post-Debate Letters

photo of Obama grimacing and looking downward during first debate

Fired up? Ready to go?

I sometimes forget that the email address I used to sign up for Obama campaign updates (almost exclusively fundraising appeals these days) gets filtered into its own special folder in my email inbox, because otherwise it’s simply too annoying to deal with the daily volume of email from that single source, this close to election day. So it wasn’t until today that I thought to check that folder, and found this after-debate appeal from the President’s campaign:

If you want to be president of the United States, you have got to be willing to stand up and tell the American people the truth.

Mitt Romney had a chance to do just that the other night, and he chose a different path.

Rather than own up to his plan for $5 trillion worth of tax cuts for the wealthy that he’s spent more than a year talking about, he denied it. Instead of telling the truth about his plan to turn Medicare into a voucher program, he dodged the question. And given the chance to explain how he’d “replace” Obamacare, he offered no plan.

Oh, boy. I could feel my blood start to boil as soon as I read that – I didn’t even need to get down to the ubiquitous hat-passing appeal for more of my money. This was my reply:

Look, I know you’re deathly afraid of coming off in a way that will let Sean Hannity portray you as the “angry black man.” And not without reason. But as Jon Stewart of all people put it on Thursday after that turd of a performance you turned in, shouldn’t you display at least as much of the “fired-up, ready to go” spirit and sense of urgency as you request of your email list volunteers? It’s just too early for you to start playing to not-lose, to start taking a knee and running out the clock.

Jesus Christ, Barack, going into that debate on Wednesday, everyone agreed that if Romney had a bad, or even just an OK night, and you had a good one where you really held his feet to the fire, you’d make the trending-downwards of the Romney campaign permanent. You’d “put him away.” Instead, you proved Chris frigging Christie right when he took his wide, bloviating ass onto the talk shows in the pre-debate days and arrogantly proclaimed that Mitt Romney was going to wipe the floor with you.

And yes, you did win in the “honesty” category. And yes, it sucks that since 1960, the press have discovered (and in fact actually CELEBRATE) that their source of employment itself – the media – can make candidates President on the basis of who had the better hair or smile rather than who had the better arguments and policies. But for crying out loud, it isn’t as if this is exactly new information you or your supposed campaign professionals are only now having to adjust to on the fly, in the moment. You knew it going into that debate; that’s the way it’s been now for fifty years. But instead of bringing the kind of enthusiasm you regularly (though not always) display on the stump, you gave the nation (many of them tuning in for the first time to the campaign that evening) Professor Obama, the 3D chess player and detached, bored leader of a diffident class of freshmen students.

Mitt Romney kept lobbing meatball after meatball over the heart of the plate, the kind of lies that just BEGGED to be swatted into the third deck…and you just kept standing there taking pitches.

What. The. Hell.

Go out there and act like you want to win this thing. Because if you don’t act like that, why the hell should anyone else?

The Obama campaign’s email continued on with this final bit of insanity:

Debates are one factor, but you need to remember: what he or I say in those debates will not decide this election.

Breathtaking, in its insipidness, isn’t it? I mean, think about that sentence for a moment. After an election – especially if one is on the losing side – there’s a tendency to stir the ashes, to keep doing autopsy after autopsy and analysis after analysis, trying to figure out what went wrong, what that magic “one factor” was that swung the painfully close election into your opponent’s column and sent your candidate to the showers. All such post-facto scab-picking is of course useless in the “no-sense-crying-over-spilled-milk” sense of the word. But something campaigns or their supporters seem to fail to notice is that aside from the futility of playing the “shoulda, woulda, coulda” game, the other undeniable truth in any such close loss is that almost any of the factors that swung the opponent’s way can be said to have been “the deciding factor.”

When George W. Bush won by the slimmest of margins in 2000 (leaving aside that in many ways, it was the SCOTUS and not the voters who (s)elected him), such agonized, after-action analysis was at its height. The favorite scapegoat for Al Gore’s loss was of course Ralph Nader. And, with a loss of 537 votes in Florida, certainly the 90,000 Nader voters in the Sunshine state can have been said to have “made the difference” between President Gore and President Bush. But it’s equally true that if Al Gore had been able to win his OWN STATE, Florida would not have mattered (Presidents almost never lose their home states; both 2000 and again this year are outliers in that regard — Mitt Romney is behind by as much as thirty points in Massachusetts). Others pointed to electronic voting machine irregularities in Ohio, or any number of other factors that, had that one factor been different, would have resulted in a President Gore. Here’s the thing (and the reason why such noodling is pointless after a loss): they are ALL true. Yup, had any one of those things been different, we’d have had a different President in 2001. And because this is true, it makes it patently silly to claim that this or that specific factor was THE thing that cost Gore the election. It ALL matters.

That’s why this Obama letter – especially that last sentence I quoted – is so noxious. Because in their blizzard of email to supporters, the Obama campaign at least pretends to know this: they say things like “the call you make today to a voter in Ohio or Iowa or Florida may make the difference.” When it comes time to ask their supporters for money or volunteer time or even simply enthusiasm, the Obama campaign seems to understand full well that there IS a threshold between winning and losing, and that indeed everything that helps the campaign is a factor in getting them across that threshold and into a second term.

Which is why it’s borderline insulting for them to claim that a thuddingly bad debate performance by the President which was viewed by some sixty million Americans supposedly “will not decide this election.”

Bullshit, Barack – and you know it. If the race is truly close, it may very well be that everyone from you and whichever one of your staff wrote this email to the “professional left” that you allow your campaign to so roundly ridicule may be sitting around in the days after a President Romney is elected, each offering up that one factor out of hundreds which “was the deciding factor.” If you lose in November by a handful of votes in Florida or Ohio after having had the momentum trending in your direction up until last Wednesday, it will certainly be valid to note that was the day you lost.

Last thing: of course you and your staff are right, that virtually all independent journalists and fact-checkers agree that Mitt Romney lied his way through Wednesday night. But allowing Thursday-morning fact-checkers to do what you should have done in the moment is not only vastly less effective, it’s a paler version of the same kind of “coulda, woulda, shoulda” that happens on the day after an election. Don’t let Romney get away with it again. And don’t delegate the job of refuting him to your underlings or the media in the week AFTER Romney tries to foist off that kind of nonsense on not just you, but the American public. Instead, act like you ask US to behave: as if every phone call, every small contribution, every door knock and yes, every debate performance might just be “the deciding factor.” Because it might be.

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On Mitt Romney’s 47% Comments

What Ezra said. Romney’s comments were so shocking – and disgusting – on their face, that it’s tempting to simply point to them or mirror the video and assume that the reader/viewer will know without thinking what’s wrong with them. Truthfully, most people probably will intuitively understand most or all of why Romney’s comments were so vile. But merely using implied assumptions to carry the day on a revelation of this magnitude is to do a disservice to the public record. In short, it’s not enough to simply point and roll our collective eyes at Romney’s despicable, divisive comments. It’s important, for the record (and even if it seems obvious), to point out exactly why Romney’s comments are so revealing about his character, his campaign, and his plans for the country.

In yesterday’s Washington Post, Ezra Klein does exactly that (so I don’t have to!). Go read it all, but here’s a taste of Ezra’s devastating takedown of Romney’s remarks and the broader implications of what they mean:

For what it’s worth, this division of “makers” and “takers” isn’t true. Among the Americans who paid no federal income taxes in 2011, 61 percent paid payroll taxes — which means they have jobs and, when you account for both sides of the payroll tax, they paid 15.3 percent of their income in taxes, which is higher than the 13.9 percent that Romney paid. Another 22 percent were elderly.

So 83 percent of those not paying federal income taxes are either working and paying payroll taxes or they’re elderly and Romney is promising to protect their benefits because they’ve earned them. The remainder, by and large, aren’t paying federal income or payroll taxes because they’re unemployed.

Ouch. And spot on. It’s devastating because it simply lays out the facts of who pays what kind of (and how much) taxes in modern America. I especially like Klein’s point that, at 15.3%, even someone who pays only payroll taxes is paying a greater percentage of his or her income than Mitt Romney himself paid in the one year we have complete data for (2011, in which Romney paid 13.9%). Romney’s surreptitiously-recorded statements, made behind closed (and presumably gold-plated) doors to a private audience of top-dollar donors when he thought nobody was listening, are in truth nothing new on the right. Their tone strongly echoes Ronald Reagan’s welfare queens, riding around in the free Cadillacs the government bought them. Such noxious nonsense wasn’t any more true in Reagan’s day than it is today when Romney says similar words.

Klein’s service in this column is reminding us of exactly how and why it’s so false. That’s worth remembering, and especially worth repeating, loudly and often, when it rears its ugly head, as it has this week. So, gratitude to Ezra for remembering this stuff doesn’t do itself. Go read the whole thing; it’s more than worth your time.

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About Mitt Romney’s Tax (Disclosure) Evasion

So lately, as everyone who reads blogs or watches left-ish TV pundits knows, much hay has been made about Mitt Romney’s seemingly-inexplicable refusal to release more than two years worth of his tax returns – the last two, when he knew for certain he was already running for President in 2012. Actually, Romney hasn’t even fully released all of those two years, but close enough. Speculation has focused on the previous, well, all of the years between the time Romney left the protective umbrella of his dad’s finances and forged out into the world on his own and the present. Many a commentator, up to and including President Obama’s oppo-research team, have speculated – not without reason – about why Romney continues to refuse to disclose tax returns from years prior to 2010.

Speculation has focused specifically on the notion that perhaps Romney may have paid no taxes at all in some years. The Obama campaign released an ad to that effect not long ago, to great fanfare and speculation on the left (as well as some deflection and outrage on the right). More recently, Senate majority leader Harry Reid dropped the bombshell that a former Bain investor with knowledge of the matter told him directly that in some prior years, Romney indeed paid no taxes whatsoever.

If these allegations are true, they are indeed a bombshell, for exactly the reasons Romney would be wise to keep such news private if he possibly can: because although the American electorate tends not to begrudge people wealth – even great wealth – we also have a stubbornly persistent anti-elitist streak, as well as an enduring sense of fair play. In short: while few voters will look upon the simple fact of Romney’s enormous wealth as a detriment (indeed, it may even be seen as an asset by many, on its own), those feelings would almost certainly change for many voters if it was revealed that Romney’s millions were accumulated at the expense of fellow Americans (hence the offshoring ads), or that Romney utilized strategies available only to the wealthy to avoid paying his fair share of taxes like most of the rest of us must. And if it were revealed specifically that Romney really did pay NO taxes whatsoever during some of the years he was raking in his millions – even only one or two years – such a revelation would be a candidacy-ending event. Mitt Romney would not be able to be elected dogcatcher in the wake of such a disclosure.

This dynamic is already well-understood by political observers, both professional and amateur. Certainly, both campaigns are aware that would be the case. And indeed, the Romney campaign’s continued stonewalling on the issue of the candidate’s pre-2010 taxes does lend itself to ever-wilder speculation along these very lines. Unfortunately, that’s exactly where the Democrats, the Obama campaign and progressive commentators may be making a serious tactical political blunder.

Let me be clear: if someone on the Democratic side knows for a fact the most-severe of the allegations about Romney’s taxes are true (not just suspects they might be true), then full speed ahead: up the pressure on the tax issue until Romney has no choice but to release the returns. That would be the equivalent of holding four aces for the Obama campaign, and it would be difficult to overplay or blow such a great hand.

But here’s the thing: if no one except the IRS and Mitt Romney (and, I suppose, John McCain) know what’s really in Romney’s previous-year tax returns – in other words, if Reid isn’t certain of his source and/or the Obama campaign is just speculating for political effect, then publicly and repeatedly speculating about a worst-case scenario such as Romney having paid no taxes at all may very well work against Obama and Democrats.

Why? Because although the pressure applied is the same, the end result almost certainly would not be. One of the lines of reasoning most often given (to fairly good effect) to explain Romney’s continued refusal to release any more of his taxes is that it must mean whatever’s in those tax returns would be so politically damaging to Romney that it’s better to take whatever damage comes from not releasing them, compared to the damage that would be incurred from disclosure.

If Romney really did pay no taxes, then that suspicion would be correct. But what if the Romney campaign’s refusal to release other tax years’ returns is nothing more than the stiff-necked authoritarianism and “you people” dismissiveness of a man not used to having to answer to anyone? What if those old tax returns show some chicanery, but not much worse than the 13.9% rate he’s already disclosed for the 2010/11 years, and nothing close to the bombshell of having paid no taxes at all?

In that case, ratcheting up the pressure on Romney to intolerable levels may very well backfire. If the Obama campaign and liberal commentators and journalists make the Romney team believe that the political cost of remaining silent has exceeded the likely damage of disclosure, the result could easily be that the public’s reaction to the actual revelations (having been set SO high by loose – and, it turns out, unsubstantiated – claims of total tax avoidance by Romney) is a big yawn. After such a build-up, moderate tax-avoidance may well seem like no big deal, at least in comparison.

Worse, Democrats, journalists and the Obama campaign will appear to have been embarrassingly hyperventilating in their accusations (not to mention wrong), and Mitt Romney will be easily portrayed by any competent campaign staffer as the aggrieved, unjustly-accused party, even though there may be issues the voters would otherwise care about in what Romney revealed.

Obviously, I have no idea either what might be lurking in Mitt Romney’s tax returns from, say, the Bain years or why his campaign is declining to release more than two years of returns even in the face of mounting pressure to do so. So I’ll repeat: if someone in the Obama’s oppo team or elsewhere in the Democratic establishment really does have the goods regarding what’s in Mitt’s old tax returns that’s making him so apprehensive about releasing them, and if that reason really IS that Mitt Romney paid no taxes in at least one year, then the current, wildly speculative strategy is exactly the right strategy.

But if this is all just guesswork on the part of the Obama campaign, Reid and lefty pundits, and an attempt to score points against an opponent’s seemingly-inexplicable refusal to disclose past tax data, then it might be worth trying to avoid overshooting the target with all that speculative outrage, and risking a let-down in reality. The stakes are too high for this kind of a bet if you’re not actually holding those four aces.

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This Is What Passes For Hard-Hitting Investigative Journalism On The Right

**UPDATE, 7/15 – welcome Crooks & Liars readers! Thanks for visiting. **

Beyond parody:

The Obama Campaign rolled out some new fonts on the campaign last week.  The typeface chosen for the word ‘America’ was starkly different that anything we had seen before. Buzzfeed’s Zeke Miller reported that the font was named “Revolution Gothic” and that according to myfonts.com the typeface origin is seeded in Cuban Communist propaganda.

No, really. Some wingnut with waaaay too much time on his hands saw this Obama campaign image:

Obama campaign image: Betting On America

…and decided it looked like old commie propaganda. And not that the message or anything looked suspicious - just the FONT. If that weren’t enough, next the enterprising little chowderheads at “The Blaze” (Glenn Beck’s post-cable-news conspiracy-palooza web site*) spent lord only knows how many hours poring over Internet photo archives of actual old Cuban/communist posters, etc, to find any similarities in the font.

Reminds me of not that long ago when what appeared to be a coordinated wingnut internet campaign centered around trying to disparage the Obama campaign’s newly-unveiled slogan, “Forward,” as also being commie-inspired. That is, until sane people started pointing out that scads of organizations, both historically and today, used the slogan “forward” or some variation of it, in their advertising/PR — including (embarrassingly) such political groups as the College National Republican Committee and even – gasp! – St. Reagan.

Naturally, after all that, you’ll be unsurprised to hear it’s been a while since we heard anything on the “Forward = commie propaganda” front. But Fontgate is just getting started. I guess the wingnuts must have moved on to the next yet-to-be-discredited idea, to try to give IT its fifteen minutes of infamy before it gets subjected to even the barest scrutiny and laughed out of the court of public opinion.

* Can I just add as an uncharitable aside that, knowing Beck & Co’s penchant for such loony partisan hackery/conspiracy theory-mongering, the phrase “The Blaze” always conjures up for me an image of a man trying desperately – and eventually succeeding – to light his own farts. That’s about the level of perspicacity on display most of the time in this – as in all – Beck ventures.

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Politics 101, Economics Edition

(warning: lengthy, Socratic-ish discourse ahead):

photo of Michael Douglas from 'Wall Street'

Damn It Feels Good To Be A Banker

Over at POLITICO, we learn that Wall Street intends to turn the full wrath of it’s newly-increased, post-Citizens United and SuperPAC strength, against President Obama this year. Expect a veritable blizzard of deceptive, negative advertising.

The usual suspects will, no doubt, tout this as proof positive that claims of Obama being friendly to Wall Street are – and always were – simply wrong at best, and more likely the malicious fabrications of angry liberals (yeah, I know, but this is what these folks really think) who, in Robert Gibbs’ notorious phrasing, would’ve preferred a President Kucinich (but wouldn’t even have been satisfied with that). But the reality is far simpler.

It isn’t that the POLITICO piece is wrong – because I doubt it is. The Center for Responsive Politics does excellent work, and there’s no reason nor evidence to suspect they’re wrong when they say that Wall Street’s number one priority this election cycle will be to defeat President Obama (followed closely by various vulnerable Democratic legislators the bankers perceive as openly hostile to their interests). The fact, outlined in the article, that “Obama has raised just $5.1 million from the finance, insurance and real estate sectors so far this cycle compared with $12.4 million for Mitt Romney’s campaign” ought to be enough to convince anyone where Wall Street’s sympathies lie this time out.

Instead, what’s incorrect is the facile assumption that because Wall Street is backing Mitt Romney over Obama, it must be due to the fact that Obama has been in practice some kind of crusading Occupy Wall Street 99%er. Even a casual glance at the record of evidence amassed over the past three-plus years disproves this notion easily. What such a glance reveals is an administration at least as concerned with reducing the deficit immediately as it is in putting Americans back to work or reducing their suffering on the mortgage/housing bubble front. Such a glance shows an administration whose actions – if not always their words – reveals their belief that a healthy finance sector equals (or at least will lead to) an equally healthy America for the rest of us. Such a glance shows an administration all-too-willing to hold-over Bush-era appointees in key financial positions, and to refuse to use the power of the executive to appoint desperately needed, pro-consumer/citizen heads of its own to departments and other key positions (DeMarco, at FHFA, is perhaps the most-visible of these). Continue reading

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